New track has hurricane heading farther north
Weather projections now show that Hurricane Irene will almost definitely miss South Carolina and may even avoid the whole east coast, said USC geography professor Cary Mock.
“It’s still scheduled to intensify, although probably not as much as people thought it would as of yesterday,” Mock said. “It will still probably intensify into a major hurricane by the time it gets into the Bahamas.”
As of Tuesday afternoon, some computer models, including those from the National Hurricane Center, show a reasonable chance that the storm will miss the entire East Coast.
“If I had to guess right now, I would say that there’s probably a 65 percent chance that it will hit somewhere in North Carolina,” Mock said. “If it hits North Carolina, South Carolina will probably see some clouds and maybe some rain. The situation has changed quite a bit as far as South Carolina is concerned.
“There’s a real slight chance, less than 5 percent I would say that maybe the far northeast corner of South Carolina could see some damage,” Mock said. “But that’s only if the storm goes to its far left possibility.”
The National Hurricane Center projects that if the storm does hit South Carolina, it will be Saturday afternoon.
Mock, the National Hurricane Center and Weather.com all predict the storm to reach a Category 3 status, which classifies it as a “major hurricane” with winds between 115 and 125 mph.
“If it’s a major hurricane then it’s a little unusual [to see it hit North Carolina], but the Outer Banks of North Carolina stick out so they always get a lot of hurricanes,” Mock said. “South Carolina is even more unusual. We haven’t had a major hurricane since Hugo as a matter of fact.”
Weather.com reported that “Irene is a serious and multi-hazard threat for the major metropolitan areas of the Northeast along and east of the I-95 corridor. This includes New York City. This hurricane has the potential to produce flooding rains, high winds, downed trees (on houses, cars, power lines) and widespread power outages. Significant impacts along the immediate coast include high waves, surge and beach erosion.”
Mock agreed, saying that if the storm has any impact it will be around the Outer Banks, the mid-Atlantic and Southern New England.
“Since I’m from Myrtle Beach I’m used to having hurricanes, so I’m not really worried about Irene,” said third-year media arts student Hunter Fowler. “The fact that it’s probably not going to South Carolina is just good news for everyone though.”
The storm is rather large, so if it doesn’t hit South Carolina the largest effect will probably be a rise in tides and a dangerous coastline, said Mock.