Griffin Hobson: Yes
So far, Sen. Bernie Sanders has focused almost exclusively on economic inequality and electoral reform rather than articulating a broad platform.
Sure, he occasionally talks about something else, but his campaign has a clear core. At present, he has won over educated, white liberals but he has done little to expand his influence in the party.
As such, Hillary Clinton destroys him in national polling through a coalition of minority voters, women and moderate Democrats. I believe that Sanders could change this, but it would require a partial rebranding and a lot of luck. He would need to start by broadening his appeal in the party.
His logical first step would be to attract more African-American votes. While Clinton has already positioned herself as an advocate for criminal justice reform, making it hard to run to her left, there’s probably room for Sanders.
However, he might need to get a little negative in the process. He could point out that while he has consistently worked for the expansion of civil rights, the last President Bill Clinton passed many of the policies that led to the mass incarceration regime.
Additionally, Sanders could push Clinton on drug policies and the extent of her proposed reforms. While Sanders has mostly stuck to economics and run a positive campaign so far, he could make some changes to expand his base and threaten Clinton’s support among more than white liberals.
The other factors he would need to win largely come down to luck. He would need Jim Webb to get a name recognition boost and start stealing away moderate voters after the debates. A higher-profile Webb attacking Sanders’ policies and forcing Clinton to pick a side, causing her to risk further losses among either moderates or liberals, would also help.
Joe Biden entering and stealing away establishment money, voters and endorsements would also help erode her strength a little bit more. Then the email scandal would also need to blow up even further, costing Clinton support among independents and giving her increasingly less favorable match-ups to Republican opponents in the polls.
This would threaten Clinton's biggest advantage of all: the sense that she is far and away the most electable Democrat running. It would also allow Sanders, should he choose to run a more negative campaign, to unfavorably compare her ethics and credibility to his.
Is this at all likely? Perhaps. A lot depends on other candidates surging — which Sanders has next to no control over — as well as fundamentally changing his campaign into a fairly negative, less single-minded machine. If he is really running to push Clinton to the left and make his ideas heard, he would have no reason to do this.
But if he sincerely wanted to win the nomination, it would give him a chance at doing so.
Ben Turner: No
Since my last column on Sen. Bernie Sanders, his presidential campaign has been riding high.
There was the CNN poll that showed him leading in the key state of New Hampshire. There were the new revelations over his main rival Hillary Clinton’s email server, leading to a justice department investigation and Clinton being called on the carpet in Congress. There are even comparisons being drawn between Sanders and Donald Trump, the other unconventional politician making the most waves this campaign.
But all of this belies a simple truth: he has almost no shot at winning the Democratic nomination, let alone a general election.
In an average of national polls, Clinton leads Sanders 49 percent to 25 percent. That’s even with all of her scandals and sputtering campaign. In the last fundraising quarter, Sanders only raised $15 million to Clinton’s $45 million. And with Joe Biden potentially getting into the race, it offers another outlet for the anti-Clinton vote to vent their frustration with the front-runner.
Assuming he pulls off a miracle and wins the nomination, the path is still difficult.
Sanders still loses in most polls to every Republican except Donald Trump, who has just as little chance of winning as he does. And in a recent Gallup poll, 50 percent of Americans said they would not vote for a socialist for president.
Now, one should never say never in politics. After all, far-left candidates have captured Democratic nominations in the past. Sanders has been drawing record-breaking crowds everywhere he goes, even in deep red states, and his message against income inequality has the potential to work for any candidate in a general election.
I’ll go back to the point I made in my original column. Sanders’ campaign is filled with idealistic, naïve staffers and volunteers. A perfect example is when Black Lives Matter activists attempted to disrupt a Sanders rally, and were instead given the microphone.
Although this led to Sanders pushing for many solid proposals on criminal justice and police brutality in his platform, the optics of a candidate being upstaged by protestors at his own rally are never good. Plus, his campaign has bungled the aftermath. As Donald Trump pointed out, it showed the weakness of his campaign.
For someone who has spent most of his career on the fringes of major party politics, Sanders has had a remarkably quick rise to center-stage in the Democratic Party. With the glare of the spotlight upon him, it remains to be seen if he becomes a serious contender to Hillary Clinton or a flash in the pan.
The key for Sanders will be harnessing the raw emotion and enthusiasm of his massive crowds into a strong organization. If he can do that, he might have a shot at pulling off a historic upset.
For now, though, I would bet against it.