We are six months away from the Iowa caucus, the first battle of the 2016 presidential election. It’s been over five months since the first Republican candidate, Ted Cruz, announced his decision to run for president, and it’s been four months since I wrote a column advocating an end to the Jeb Bush candidacy. The summer of 2015 brought many changes to the campaign landscape, and reflecting upon these changes raises questions about the future.
In April, when I wrote a column imploring the voters to consider more than a last name while weighing 2016 candidates, there was a name that I hadn’t considered: Donald Trump. I was a younger man then, only worrying about one relatively unqualified candidate snatching the GOP nomination away from the field. Yet, as I awoke this morning, the top two candidates in the polls are individuals with zero political experience: Trump and Dr. Ben Carson. As a matter of fact, they’re the only two candidates to average double-digit support in the polls.
The frustration of the American public with the political machine is more evident than ever, and I share in that frustration. But, does the American public truly believe that Donald Trump can effectively lead our nation through the turbulence of the coming years? Count me as one firm disbeliever. Dr. Carson may be a favorable, moderate alternative to the bombastic real estate mogul, but Carson’s lack of true political experience is still extremely troubling.
In the same aforementioned polls, a familiar name registered in third place: Jeb Bush. The Bush camp is dealing with the challenges of beginning the race as a front-runner, and yet another blow was dealt to their campaign this past week. Three of the top Bush fundraisers (Kris Money, Trey McCarley and Debbie Aleksander) left the campaign this past Friday. While there are different reports on the motives behind departure, it’s a troubling sign for Bush supporters. Bush may still sport the most impressive fundraising organization, but his poll numbers continue to drop.
The Bush campaign witnessed a peak of support in early July when he was polling at over 17 percent. Since then, the “establishment” candidate has suffered a rough slide and has been forced to watch the Trump campaign rocket into frontrunner status. Bush isn’t the only traditional political candidate who’s experienced a slide: Scott Walker, Marco Rubio, Mike Huckabee and Rand Paul have all experienced sharp downturns in support since the beginning of June.
One of the traditional political candidates in the Republican field will experience some sort of resurgence this fall and challenge the current frontrunners before the end of 2015. Will it be Bush and his financial powerhouse? Or has the consistent bashing by Trump already doomed the Bush campaign?
It’s unlikely that Paul rallies his troops, as his disapproval numbers are shockingly high, but it’s tough to count out Walker or Rubio. They both have experience with tough campaigns at lower levels, and have the youth and energy needed to withstand the fierce primary season. There are still other possibilities, like the familiar names of Rick Perry and Chris Christie, or the long-shot candidates like Lindsey Graham and Bobby Jindal. History tells us that somebody will have to challenge the Trump campaign before too long, and it’s likely that the contender is getting ready to make a serious push sometime in the coming weeks.
The fun part of the 2016 presidential primaries is only just beginning, and it is shaping up to be a race to remember. For my money, I expect Bush to make a push this fall, likely ending in a dogfight with Trump for the Iowa caucus in February. Still, I hope I’m wrong; the idea of two under-qualified yet overly-wealthy white men bashing each other for the GOP nomination is too familiar to root for.