This past April, the “I’m Ready for Hillary” campaigners had no fear. Hillary Clinton was routinely polling as the top democratic candidate, and the nomination felt routine. Since then, it has been a long five months for the Clinton campaign.
No matter what the Clinton campaign tries, they cannot make her email scandal go away. Their inability to move past these issues has lowered poll numbers and has brought the Clinton campaign to a halt, while others are on the move.
The key to the future of the 2016 Democratic nomination is the current Vice President of the United States, Joe Biden. While he hasn’t yet announced whether he is running, Biden is currently polling in third place with 16 points.
While another presidential run is still an open question for Biden, he has made some recent publicity moves. On Monday, Biden jogged through a Labor Day parade in Pittsburgh to the cheers of “Run, Joe, Run!” This Thursday, you can catch him on the Late Show with Stephen Colbert.
Looking forward, Biden has reworked the State of the Union schedule to include official VP visits to New Hampshire, Iowa and South Carolina. This lets Biden (unofficially) campaign for free. This publicity advantage may delay an official announcement but could seriously raise support for Biden without depleting his funds.
So, what if Biden runs for president? Somewhere, a Clinton campaign staffer is sweating through their shirt, crunching poll numbers to answer this question. The news for the Clintons doesn’t look so good. If, or when, Biden makes his announcement, there would be a noticeable spike of support in the polls.
Looking at the field, logic says that Biden will siphon a chunk of votes away from moderate Clinton supporters who may be on the fence about her candidacy. He’s less likely to get significant votes from current Sanders supporters, but he may not need them.
If Biden were to take fifteen points from Clinton and another three to five from Sanders, the 2016 Democratic primaries would be a legitimate three-candidate race. In this scenario, Clinton would still lead the polls, but by a slim three points. In a close race, Sen. Sanders would be sitting in third, about ten points behind.
A tight three-candidate race wasn’t what Clinton signed up for in April. While Clinton is only dealing with the email scandal right now, more candidates would put more focus on older scandals. Other candidates may highlight Clinton’s actions during Benghazi, her relationship with Sidney Blumenthal and the Clinton foundation. Not to mention: Whitewater, Troopergate, Paula Jones, Monica Lewinsky, etc. The Clintons have stocked their opponents’ arsenals with plenty of ammunition over the years, and it manifests now.
With Clinton facing a tough road ahead, Biden might be considered a favorite. If Biden enters the fray, he’s a strong candidate to catch fire and take the democratic field by storm. But don’t count out Sanders. In a tight three-candidate race, the fiery Senator from Vermont could utilize his superb campaign organization and oratory skills to make a surprise run. The longer Biden waits, the longer Sanders will continue to rise in the polls.
We will have a new college football champion before we have a democratic nominee for president, but this fall will make the race much clearer. It remains to be seen if Clinton can turn her campaign around, but at this point it seems like Biden’s race to lose. To make a serious run, though, Biden will have to take Clinton head-on. A Biden/Clinton primary race could get just ugly enough to split the moderate support base, giving Sanders an actual chance to win the democratic nomination.