On Tuesday, Donald Trump announced that he will not participate in Thursday's Republican debate. This means that the debate may actually have some political discourse or intelligent discussion, although that's not guaranteed. By skipping the debate, Trump makes an appeal to his voter base but leaves himself vulnerable. During a tight Iowa race, this could be the move that paves the way to a Ted Cruz victory.
Trump and Cruz are deadlocked in a stiff competition for the Iowa caucus, but Cruz will be the only candidate on the national stage. The Trump and Cruz show was the star of the last Republican debate, and they effectively kept one another in check. Without that check and balance, Cruz has an advantage.
By forfeiting his spot, Trump is giving Cruz a premier opportunity to talk directly to the Iowan people just three days before the caucus. While Cruz won’t be the only candidate on the stage, he is still the best debater in the field. Trump’s absence leaves a vacuum — a vacuum Cruz is ready to fill.
While Trump is hosting a fundraiser event for a few hundred in Iowa, Cruz will be in the living room of every Iowan with a TV. This won’t win Cruz the caucus, but it won’t hurt. Some say that Trump is rewriting the rules of politics, and this may be true. If Trump is able to win Iowa without this final debate, it would only further his momentum. Still, the move makes the Trump campaign vulnerable before their most important test to date.
Without Iowa, the rest of the primaries are certain to be a dogfight for the Trump campaign. It was going to be tough no matter what, but Trump has utilized many of his resources for a victory in Iowa.
We will know the winner of the Iowa caucus on Monday night. Until then, everything is simply speculation. The debate stage will seem a little quieter without Trump’s cadence. Most frightening of all, Cruz will have the opportunity to make a move and, just maybe, steal a victory.