This week, the 2016 primary election circus goes through Wisconsin. On Tuesday, voters from both parties will head to the polls in the Badger State with the fate of the election in their hands. The Democratic and Republican party front-runners, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, both have strong holds on their respective party’s delegate races. But in Wisconsin, Clinton and Trump trail their opponents in the polls with little time to catch up.
If the #NeverTrump movement and Sanders campaign have any hopes of underdog victories in the nomination races, both must win in Wisconsin. If they are able to do so, the stage will be set for an April 19 showdown in the New York primary.
On the Republican side, Sen. Ted Cruz has been able to sit back and watch his stock rise as Trump campaign drama has bogged down their poll numbers. Rather than directly attacking Trump, Cruz is letting the Trump campaign’s negative momentum do all the work.
While Trump is still the definitive front-runner, the past few weeks haven’t been kind to his campaign. While already facing criticism over his campaign manager’s arrest, Trump’s comments (and later flip-flops) on punishments for women who have abortions have continued to hurt his poll numbers. Those who questions his ability to expand his support base, especially among female voters, are painting Trump as an unelectable general election candidate.
Cruz has been leading the Wisconsin polls by an average of 6.8 points since March 24 and is in a solid position for a big Rust Belt victory. A victory in Wisconsin would demonstrate support for Cruz outside of Midwestern states, and may be a sign of success for the #NeverTrump movement. Trump is still dominating New York polls, but if Cruz is able to chip away at that lead, it may be enough to force a contested convention.
On the Democratic side, Sanders is riding a wave of fresh momentum following landslide victories in Washington, Alaska and Hawaii. These victories, along with earlier victories in Idaho and Utah, have brought new life (and fundraising) to the Sanders campaign. While he is still trailing Clinton in the delegate math, recent victories and a surge in campaign donations are sure to keep Sanders in the race.
This is generally bad news for Clinton, who is desperately trying to get Sanders to just go away. After landslide victories on March 15 she had begun changing her rhetoric towards the general election, but she’s now being forced to double-back. Clinton is trailing Sanders slightly in Wisconsin, and may not be able to make up the ground in time.
If Sanders wins Wisconsin, it will force Clinton to redouble her focus on New York. Her lead in New York remains solid, averaging about 10 points, but after her loss in Michigan no lead seems safe. The harder Clinton has to fight against the progressive Sanders for the primary nomination, the harder it will be for Clinton to identify as a moderate candidate in the general election.
If Sanders were to somehow win both Wisconsin and New York, it may be the first true sign of trouble for the Clinton campaign. While the chances are slim, the Feel the Bern movement is in a much better position now than three weeks ago. This is the time for the senator from Vermont to make his move for the nomination, and his campaign seems ready to do so.
For both parties, the next two and a half weeks will go a long way in determining the respective nominees. Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump still remain front-runners by any definition, but their rivals are in strong positions to shake up the nomination. And if there’s one thing we’ve learned by now, it's that nothing that happens in this 2016 primary race is boring.