Ray Kurzweil, futurist and inventor, has a 30-year track record of incredibly accurate predictions about the progression of human information technology. He has based his predictions on trends in technology that have persisted for decades upon decades. Kurzweil has honed his predictive analyses to such a fine point that his own much broader “Law of Accelerating Returns” has held true in almost all aspects since its postulation 15 years ago. If they continue to work, nanotechnology — a field that has the potential to revolutionize nearly every recess of human life including our own mortality —will become closer and closer to reality.
When it comes to making use of the impending nanotechnological revolution, biologists are the pioneers. For instance, a self-proclaimed “crusader against aging,” Aubrey de Grey, has come out with some strong assertions concerning human mortality in the face of bleeding-edge biotechnology.
In his TED talk “A Roadmap to End Aging”, de Grey notes how well we understand the damages incurred by metabolic processes in comparison to how poorly we understand the metabolic processes themselves. With this, nanotechnology finds its niche in the world of the organic.
Using nanotechnology to repair tissue damage is an entirely new way to approach health care. Scientists already have all kinds of designs for nanomedicine, but one of particular interest will target cancerous cells for more precise annihilation. The nanomedicine program has made huge strides since its birth in 2005, so many centers were recently approved to continue their research.
Researchers like de Grey predict that nanomedicine will soon be extending our lives in as large as 30 year increments. There is some speculation among scientists as to when these longevity boosts will occur; but one thing is more or less a consensus of the scientific community, and that is that the alleged “longevity escape velocity” is approaching in our technological progression. This phenomenon will occur when our life-extending technological breakthroughs outpace our own aging.
Now allow me to mention a few ethical and spiritual concerns that longevity raises: How long is it ethical or spiritually righteous for one to live? Does the amount of jurisdiction we may soon have concerning the length of our lifespans implicate the existence or nonexistence of a God?
Is it ethical to charge people money for the procedures and medicines that will extend their lives? If the capitalization of life-extension is necessary for its development, what kind of evolutionary trends will we see? In other words, will the rich grow older while the poor die off? Would it be ethical to consciously embrace that trend, or should we assume more control over the life-extension market? Should it even be a market?
When thousand-year lifespans become commonplace, how will we control our population and how should we affect our birth rate?
And last but not least: Should we limit or perhaps prohibit life-extension so as to avoid the existential gloom that might accompany the absence of death?
Kurzweil, the same man who accurately foresaw the advent of Wi-Fi and many other technological advances, is now predicting that this era of agelessness and neocortical clouds (external memory banks to which our brains will connect wirelessly) will begin only 13 years from now in 2029.
If this number doesn’t strike you as very believable, I would urge you to recall the accuracy of the predictions of Moore and Cooper, who predicted exponential expansions of technology. Facets of technology undeniably double their pace of advancement every few years. This is a historic fact. According to that logic, from 1965 to 1967, you could say humanity experienced 2 “Moore-years” worth of technological growth. But then our pace doubled, so from 1967 to 1969, we experience 4 “Moore-years” worth of technological growth. This pattern continues on to show that from 2027 to 2029, we should experience 1 billion years worth of technological growth.
The temporal proximity of 2029 demands that we as students begin to ponder the implications of immortality and discuss our opinions. If the general population is uninformed of the radical changes to come, I fear how much control the sociopolitical elite will assume over the new age.
As a fellow student, I urge you all to begin the dialogue concerning immortality, and possibly even consider adapting your majors to fields that are more receptive to longevity and nanotechnology. Emerge from mortality and embrace your potentially infinite futures.