In an address on Tuesday, Prime Minister Theresa May announced that the United Kingdom will not enter the single European market — confirming the belief that the U.K. plans for a "hard Brexit" from the European Union. Though she mentions an intent to create a free trade deal with the E.U., this is a large step toward a more protectionist U.K. and it is a move that can galvanize other protectionist supporters in the world, including President Donald Trump. According to his own website, Trump plans for the U.S. to exit the Trans-Pacific Partnership and renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement. If these changes go through, the job market for college graduates will look very different from how it does now.
The goal of protectionism and "fair" trade is to bring American jobs back to the U.S. In the best-case scenario, this strategy convinces companies to keep their factories in the States and gives them an incentive to create new jobs by opening new facilities. These created jobs will be blue-collar, lower-skill work that do not require higher education. This strategy is a relief to small cities in the Midwest that have been hit hard by outsourcing and offshoring, but it will not be very appealing to anyone in higher education. As college students, we invest tens of thousands of dollars every year in our education with the belief that we will get a high-salary job when we graduate and make our effort worthwhile.
However, if the world moves toward protectionism, then high-skill, education-intensive jobs, which have flourished in the world of free trade, will become more competitive. Another reason for concern is the possibility of trade wars and high tariffs, which could put a strain on the American economy. If a recession occurs within the next couple years, protectionism could exacerbate the problem and potentially see millions of Americans lose their jobs. And as recent college graduates, we will be the first to go. It may not be not very useful to constantly think of the doomsday scenario, but it would be foolish to not plan for the challenges we will face in Trump’s "fair trade" world.