Kentucky Wildcats (17-3, 7-1 SEC)
Projection: Lock
Despite an upset loss at Tennessee on Tuesday, Kentucky is in good hands with veteran head coach John Calipari and a well-rounded team that is dominant both on the offensive and the defensive side of the ball. The Wildcats are led by conference-leading scorer Malik Monk, who averages 21.9 points per game, and also lead the SEC in scoring, rebounding and blocks. Not only does Kentucky dominate the stat sheet, but they are on pace to win their 50th regular season conference title, which is quite the feat. However, a regular season SEC title is not the Wildcats’ primary goal, as this blueblood program craves another national championship.
A number one seed in the NCAA Tournament is what they desire, but what will it take to get there? The Wildcats are currently ranked fourth in the nation, and also boast the nation’s fourth-ranked RPI, with victories over North Carolina (seventh), South Carolina (17th) and Arkansas (27th). The rest of the conference schedule should be a cakewalk, and the only ranked team remaining on the schedule is Florida, whom the ‘Cats face both at home and on the road.
Things aren’t looking bad for Kentucky, but losses against national powers UCLA and Louisville means that they will need to prove themselves to earn a one seed in the tournament. That opportunity lies against second-ranked Kansas, whom the ‘Cats will face at home on Saturday. Bracketologist Joe Lunardi of ESPN agrees with the notion that coach Calipari and the ‘Cats have something to prove, as they currently stand as a second seed in his bracket.
South Carolina Gamecocks (16-4, 6-1 SEC)
Projection: Likely Bid
Before defeating then 19th-ranked Florida, pundits were skeptical about head coach Frank Martin’s South Carolina team, who faltered against Seton Hall, Clemson and Memphis in non-conference play while star guard Sindarius Thornwell was suspended. While South Carolina was 4-0 in conference competition at that point, they didn’t own a win against a top-50 RPI opponent other than Tennessee. After Florida, the Gamecocks have solidified their case. Not only that, but a win against Auburn on Tuesday has allowed South Carolina to tie Kentucky for first place in the SEC.
Head coach Frank Martin only faces one more ranked team on the schedule, a road game against Florida. Not only that, but other challengers like Tennessee and Arkansas come to Colonial Life Arena. South Carolina doesn’t have many more chances to face nationally ranked competition, so the formula is to keep winning.
The sky is the limit for a surging Gamecocks’ team, but don’t forget the debacle that happened last year. The good news? South Carolina currently boast the nation’s 17th-ranked RPI and projects as a seventh seed in both ESPN’s and CBS’s bracket predictions.
Florida Gators (15-5, 6-2 SEC)
Projection: Likely Bid
After back-to-back losses to South Carolina and Vanderbilt, Florida dropped to 25th in the national rankings on Monday. The Gators took out their frustration on the poor Louisiana State Tigers, whipping them by a score of 106-71. Coach Mike White and the Gators hope to use this momentum to propel them through a schedule that isn’t too forgiving, as they must face South Carolina again and Kentucky twice.
Despite this, the rest of the schedule doesn’t seem too daunting in a weak SEC this season. For the remainder of conference play, the Gators can rely on a tough defense led by center John Egbunu, who is responsible for 29 total blocks and an average of 6.7 rebounds per game. If Florida can’t stay consistent the whole season, they could probably sneak into the tournament anyways. UF’s RPI currently sits at 11th nationally, and hard-fought losses to Gonzaga, Duke and Florida State shouldn’t hurt.
A tough-as-nails schedule and a decent finish in the conference season will easily land Florida a tourney bid, and another victory against South Carolina or Kentucky definitely wouldn’t hurt. Bracketologists currently disagree on where the Gators will land, as ESPN pins them as a fifth seed and CBS projects them as a seventh seed.
Arkansas Razorbacks (16-4, 5-3 SEC)
Projection: Bubble
Arkansas started the season strong, finishing 11-1, with that lone loss coming at the hands of Minnesota. The Razorbacks’ conference play hasn’t been totally bad either, as they currently sit at 5-3. A win against an on-the-rise Tennessee is looking better after the Vols upset Kentucky Tuesday.
Losses to Kentucky and Florida are excusable, but Arkansas lacks a signature win. However, the Pigs do have the ball rolling. Their record is gaudy and the talent is there. Guards Dusty Hannahs and Daryl Macon combine for 28.1 points per game, and forward Moses Kingsley is a monster, averaging 8.2 rebounds and 2.6 blocks per game. Don’t count these Hogs out.
Georgia Bulldogs (12-8, 4-4 SEC)
Projection: Out
ESPN’s Joe Lunardi projected Georgia as a bubble team earlier in the week, but the Bulldogs need to get it together if they plan on dancing in March. There’s talent on this team with Yante Maten and J.J. Frazier, but they don’t have a victory over a projected NCAA Tournament team and they have a bad loss against Oakland. A loss to Alabama this week won't help them either.
Tennessee Vols (11-9, 4-4 SEC)
Projection: Bubble
Three of the top five Vols’ scorers are freshmen, but there’s a glimmer of hope and shot of momentum for this young team thanks to a strong schedule and a recent victory over conference kingpin Kentucky. Seven of Tennessee’s nine losses are to teams in the RPI top 30, and there’s still time for the Vols to right the ship and sneak into the tournament with an amazingly strong strength of schedule.