The Daily Gamecock

Column: What's USC's best case scenario on the gridiron in 2017?

The goal, of course, for every college football team every season is to win a national championship, but that's more reasonable for some programs than others.

Unfortunately for the Gamecock nation, we can't expect that for South Carolina this season. The Gamecocks are looking to put together their first winning regular season campaign since 2013 and build upon a surprising bowl appearance last year.

While a 15-0 season and a national title appear to be out of reach, USC is expected to take the next step this fall in Will Muschamp's second season at the helm. 

But what's the ceiling?

With the explosive potential of Jake Bentley and all the weapons around him, no particular opponent (not even the defending national champions) feels 100 percent unbeatable for the Gamecocks, at least before we see the team take the field. However, fans can't expect USC to take down Clemson, Florida and Arkansas at home in addition to topping Texas A&M, Georgia and Tennessee in enemy territory.

It is, however, reasonable to expect the Gamecocks to improve in 2017, now that Bentley has gone through an entire offseason as the starter and Muschamp has been given more time to implement his system and get his guys into the locker room. 

USC does have a shot in what is expected to be a wide open SEC East, but success can be measured in different ways. Several players have appeared on preseason award watch lists, and no Gamecock has won a national award since Jadeveon Clowney in 2012. 

USC can also hope to move up a tier in bowl games. The Gamecocks' last two bowl appearances have been at the Independence (2014) and Birmingham (2016) bowls, the least prestigious bowls that feature SEC teams. A step in the right direction would be an appearance in the next tier, such as the Liberty, Music City or Gator bowls.

But to do that, it'll be about the Gamecocks' record. 

As was the case last season, starting 4-0 isn't out of the question. Though USC will face three Power 5 opponents in the first four weeks, they come in the form of NC State, Missouri and Kentucky, who combined for an 18-20 record in 2016. The Gamecocks didn't start 4-0 last season however, turning in anemic offensive performances in road losses to Mississippi State and Kentucky on the way to a 2-2 month.

The first two weeks will be telling for USC, as the team's two biggest perceived weaknesses will be tested. In Charlotte against NC State, the reshuffled Gamecock offensive line will match up with a stout defensive front. The following week, the USC defense will face a tough early test on the road against Missouri, facing one of the SEC's most effective offenses, led by quarterback Drew Lock.

Playing both of those games away from home certainly won't help — the Gamecocks won just one game outside Columbia last season, but it was the season opener. Fans can't ignore USC's neutral-site season-opening win over North Carolina in 2015, ahead of a 3-9 season. Winning the opener is obviously important, and it can set the tone, but we won't have all the answers by Labor Day.

However, the ceiling for the first four games is still 4-0, but it isn't as high after that. 

The tough stretch starts with a trip to College Station to take on Texas A&M, a matchup that the Aggies have won every season since becoming USC's permanent crossover opponent before the 2014 season. The Gamecocks will return to Columbia to take on an underrated Arkansas team, led by possibly the best quarterback in the SEC, Austin Allen. 

After a bye week, USC will head to Knoxville to take on Tennessee, a matchup that has provided thrilling games over the last several years. The Vols certainly have less talent than their 2016 team, but as Butch Jones tries to save his job and avenge last year's upset loss in Columbia, a trip to Neyland Stadium won't be easy.

It's tough to imagine the Gamecocks taking all three of these games, and it feels like a three-week stretch that will likely feature one win. USC could be good for an upset, as was the case last season, but if it walks like 1-2 and talks like 1-2, the best case scenario is probably 1-2.

After the bye week, the Gamecocks will stay home to face Vanderbilt, who is expected to be in the SEC East cellar. Back-to-back big games follow, though, as USC will face Georgia on the road before returning to Columbia to take on the two-time defending division champion Florida Gators.

Once they get back from Gainesville, the Gamecocks will have what should be a win against Wofford (need I remind you of the 2015 Citadel game?) before the regular season finale Palmetto Bowl. 

As I said earlier, no one is unbeatable, but it feels like USC is still one year away from getting over the hump against that team from the Upstate. Georgia and Florida are expected to be the division's top teams, and both beat the Gamecocks handily in 2016, but neither has a proven quarterback for the upcoming season.

At SEC Media Days, Deebo Samuel said he felt the Gamecocks could outscore anyone in a shootout, and it's good for USC that he might be right, as the defense is unproven. In a game against Florida or Georgia that could open up a bit, USC should be able to snag a win.

That brings USC's best case regular season scenario to 8-4, which would be another improvement for the Gamecocks. It would also put them into that next tier of bowl games for the SEC, while continuing to gain ground on the recruiting trail.


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